Raleigh, NC Housing Forecast Calls for Another ‘Average’ Year in 2019

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Recent forecasts and predictions for the Raleigh, North Carolina housing market suggest that home prices will continue rising through the end of 2018 and into 2019.

Prices are expected to rise at a more or less average pace between now and summer of 2019. The Raleigh real estate market is currently experiencing a bit of a supply shortage, which is partly why home prices are climbing in the region.

Positive Forecast for Raleigh Housing Market Through 2019

In August, the housing research team at Zillow issued an updated forecast for the Raleigh, North Carolina real estate market. They predicted that the city’s median home value would rise by around 3.4% over the next 12 months. That projection extends into the summer of 2019.

As of July 2018, the median home price in Raleigh was around $262,000. Prices rose by around 5% to 6% over the previous year, according to Zillow.

Durham and Chapel Hill — the other two parts of North Carolina’s “Research Triangle” — received similar home price forecasts for the next year. In all three housing markets, the median house value is expected to climb by approximately 3% to 3.5% from August 2018 to August 2019.

The company’s forecast for the Raleigh housing market calls for additional but smaller price gains over the next year or so. In fact, their prediction for a 3.4% increase roughly matches the average annual home-price appreciation for the U.S. going back several decades.

(The double-digit gains seen in many cities following the housing market crash were an anomaly. Historically, home values in the U.S. tend to rise by around 3% to 5% annually.)

So in the regard, you could say that Raleigh has a fairly “normal” or average real estate market forecast for 2019.

The one thing that’s not normal is the inventory situation. Like many cities across the country, Raleigh’s real estate market is currently experiencing a low level of supply. This forces buyers to compete for limited inventory.

Low Level of Supply Is Driving Competition

Like many real estate markets across the country, Raleigh has a low level of supply right now (relative to the number of buyers who are actively seeking a home).

As of June 2018, the local housing market had about a two-month supply of homes for sale. Five to six months is considered to be a “balanced” real estate market. So the supply and demand situation in Raleigh still favors sellers over buyers. There aren’t enough homes for sale to satisfy the current level of demand, and that’s putting upward pressure on house prices.

Inventory is particularly tight at the lower end of the pricing spectrum, where first-time buyers tend to shop for “starter” homes.

Marti Hampton, a local real estate broker, recently told the Triangle Business Journal: “Our inventory is disappearing from the bottom up.” The bottom, in this context, refers to lower-priced homes.

In June 2018, homes listed for sale in Raleigh spent a median of 42 days on the market. That indicates a fairly competitive market. It’s not theĀ “fastest-moving” real estate market in the country — that award goes to western markets like Seattle, Denver and San Francisco. Still, the latest real estate reports and data point to a fairly competitive housing market in Raleigh.

Home buyers who enter the real estate market in 2018 or 2019 will want to give themselves plenty of time to find a suitable property. And they should be prepared for competition from other buyers.

Disclaimer: This article contains home-price forecasts and predictions for the real estate market in Raleigh, North Carolina, extending into 2019. These forward-looking statements were provided by third parties not associated with out company. As a general policy, the publishers of MetroDepth make no claims or assertions about future housing conditions.

Brandon Cornett

Brandon Cornett is a real estate market analyst, blogger, and creator of the Home Buying Institute. He also provides blogging services for mortgage professionals across the U.S.